After tonight's debate I'm tempted to say it's over, but it's not Nov. 4 so I'll restrain myself. Tonight McCain clearly failed to come up with a "game-changer" and may have lost the debate in the eyes of undecided independents (see below).
According to Five Thirty Eight, a political prediction site run by a respected statistician (who accurately predicted the NC democratic primary), Obama leads in all major swing states (Ohio +3.1, Florida +3.7, Virginia +6, Colorado +6.7, Missouri +0.9, North Carolina +1.4, Michigan +8.4), and even now leads in Indiana (+0.6)! Hook up Florida, hook up Ohio, either one... it's over.
All this came prior to the debate, which according to CNN, Obama led significantly in polling (54% Obama to 28% McCain among independents), not to mention significant leads in polls on leadership, the economy, foreign policy... it goes on and on.
It's not over until Nov. 4, but in football terms, McCain is nearing 4th and 20 at his own 10. Obama hasn't ended the game yet, but he's consistent and moving ahead. One blocked punt and it's done. Field the punt and all you need is consistency to win the game. The Gamecock in me says you never know, but for now I'm hopeful.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment